The 'El Niño' phenomenon of 2023/24, which drove up global temperatures and extreme weather conditions around the world, is showing signs of ending, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
According to the WMO's updated forecasts, released in a statement, it is likely that La Niña conditions will return later this year.
The 'La Niña' phenomenon, unlike 'El Niño', corresponds to the anomalous cooling of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, forming what is commonly known as a 'pool of cold water' in this ocean, according to the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA).
According to the IPMA, the phenomenon “produces strong changes in the general dynamics of the atmosphere, alternating climatic behavior”. It reaches its maximum intensity at the end of each year and dissipates, in most cases, by the middle of the following year.
The WMO's most recent forecasts point to a 50% probability of a 'La Niña' appearing between June and August, with the percentage rising to 60% from July to September and 70% from August to November, periods in which the possibility of a new 'El Niño' occurring is negligible.
According to the UN agency, the effects of each 'La Niña' event vary depending on its intensity, duration, the time of year in which it develops and the interaction with other climatic variables.
The WMO stresses, however, that the cyclical 'El Niño' Southern Oscillation weather pattern - which includes the opposing 'El Niño' and 'La Niña' phenomena - is now taking place in the context of climate change induced by human activities that “are increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate conditions and affecting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns”.
“Our weather will continue to become more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere,” warned WMO Under-Secretary-General Ko Barrett, quoted in the statement.
WMO forecasts suggest persistently above-normal temperatures in almost all land areas and above-normal rainfall in the far north of South America, Central America, northeast Africa, the Sahel region and areas of southwest Asia due in part to “impacts typical of the early phase of ‘La Niña’ conditions”
