Although it has gone unnoticed amid the daily barrage of news, a new Ukrainian attack on a Russian radar station has raised alarm bells among Western experts, who warn of its potential effect on the risk of the conflict escalating into a global thermonuclear war.
Last week, Ukraine attacked the Armavir radar station in Russia's Krasnodar region with drones, in the deepest Ukrainian attack on Russian territory so far.
So far so good, says science news: Kiev has every right to attack Russian territory after the illegal and totally unjustified invasion of its country.
Emily Conover
The problem lies in the nature of the target: a key installation in Moscow's extensive nuclear early warning system.
The attack, which took place on May 23, managed to hit the Armavir radar station, a sophisticated system capable of tracking up to 500 targets consisting of all types of aerial threats, both conventional and long-range missiles launched beyond the horizon, including cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from planes or submarines.
The Russian authorities confirmed that there had been an attack, although they did not say what damage had been caused. The Ukrainian government also confirmed the attack, saying that it was successful and that they managed to hit the radar system that monitors the airspace over Ukraine and Crimea.
The attack significantly damaged the station, to the point of rendering it useless. If true, this is a remarkable tactical victory for the Ukrainians, who will now be able to punish the Russian army even more in the occupied areas.
Tactical success but very dangerous
The attack on the Armavir radar station is part of a wider pattern of intensified Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russian territory, including oil refineries and transport hubs.
The increased pressure has led Russia to carry out tactical nuclear missile exercises in its Southern Military District, in a scare tactic typical of Vladimir Putin.
However, attacking a nuclear early warning system is very different from attacking a refinery, a command camp or a military logistics center.
Mauro Gilli, an analyst at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, stresses the tactical success of the attack, as it forces Russia to redeploy air defense resources. “We can debate the effectiveness and merits, but strategically the Ukrainian approach is logical,” he said.
But the knock-on effect for the Ukrainians themselves and the rest of the world could be extremely serious. This is why Western analysts have expressed serious reservations about this attack.
According to Hans Kristensen, an expert on nuclear arsenals at the Federation of American Scientists, “this is not a wise decision on Ukraine's part. Bombers and military installations in general are different, because they are part of conventional warfare“, but an attack on such an installation implies other factors”.
“It's in everyone's interest that Russia's ballistic missile warning system works properly,” says Thord Are Iversen, a Norwegian military analyst. Iversen is referring to one of two chains of events that this attack could lead to, both equally dangerous.
First, attacking such a crucial component of Russia's nuclear infrastructure could provoke a severe response from Moscow, including the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
This concern is based on Russia's nuclear doctrine, which allows the use of nuclear weapons in response to significant conventional threats to the state's existence.
According to a recent analysis, this doctrine could justify a nuclear response if its critical command and control infrastructure was deemed to be threatened.
Putin needs no excuse for deciding to carry out a unilateral nuclear strike with a tactical bomb, but this attack is giving him one on a plate.
Secondly, the damage done to Russia's early warning capabilities introduces a dangerous level of uncertainty into its level of defense. Any deterioration in the system could lead to misinterpretations or technical failures that could trigger a false alarm or a pre-emptive strike against the West.
High-risk situation
Basically, a misunderstanding in the Russian defense system could lead to a planetary thermonuclear war, as UN Secretary General António Guterres warned in 2022: we are one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.
Such misunderstandings have happened in the past, although the coolness of the operators and the layers of security that prevent an accidental launch have prevented catastrophe - as happened in 1983, when Stanislav Petrov, in charge of the Missile Surveillance System in the Soviet Union during the Cold War, made a decision that saved the world from World War III.
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However, given the current critical state of the Russian armed forces and politics, we are in a very dangerous period, because the possibility of failure and miscommunication has multiplied to levels that surpass the worst moments of the Cold War - a time when the Soviet armed forces had a solid structure and hierarchy, which is not the case now.
Given the high-risk nature of nuclear deterrence, the risk of escalation in either direction is a serious concern.
“I have some concerns about whether the decision to attack this facility was reasonable, as it could have negative repercussions for Ukraine in the future,” considers Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher at the University of Oslo.
The potential for these events to escalate into a global nuclear conflict exists and cannot be overestimated, say experts in the field.
In addition, Russia has suspended its participation in the treaties signed with the US that limit nuclear weapons and tests.
As the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) points out, this increases the risk due to the fragile state of nuclear arms control, and the attack on the decommissioning station further alters the precarious balance of deterrence.
